The Rise of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and the Future of Syria
Syria at a Crossroads
As someone old enough to have witnessed the Iranian Revolution unfold live on television, the idea of a religious extremist leading a coalition of rebels to seize control of a nation fills me with a sense of unease. The parallels between the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 and Abu Mohammad al-Jolani in Syria today are striking, despite their different contexts. Both men were charismatic religious leaders who capitalized on popular discontent to overthrow a secular, authoritarian regime. Both promised a new era of justice and piety, but their visions for the future were rooted in ideologies that many found concerning. While Khomeini established a theocratic state in Iran, it remains to be seen what path al-Jolani will forge for Syria. Will he follow in Khomeini's footsteps, or will he chart a different course?
The Evolution of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, born Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa in 1982, has emerged as a key figure in the Syrian Civil War and the recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. His journey, marked by transformations and contradictions, raises questions about his true intentions and the future he envisions for Syria.1
Jolani's early life was shaped by the Palestinian Second Intifada, which radicalized him in his late teens.2 He traveled to Iraq shortly before the 2003 invasion and quickly rose through the ranks of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).2 He was even a close associate of AQI leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.2
In 2012, with support from al-Qaeda, Jolani founded Jabhat al-Nusra, an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria.3 He established a stronghold for the group in Idlib Governorate.2 However, in 2016, he severed ties with al-Qaeda and merged al-Nusra with other organizations to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).1 This move was seen as an attempt to gain international legitimacy by focusing on governance in Syria rather than global jihadist goals.1
Jolani's transformation has been evident in his public statements and interviews. In a 2021 interview, he claimed there was common ground between the U.S. and HTS, stating that the region under his control did not pose a threat to the West and was not a staging ground for foreign jihad.4 He has also sought to reassure the West that they have nothing to fear from a post-Assad Syria.5
However, Jolani's past actions contradict his recent pronouncements. In 2014, he vowed to fight the "United States and its allies." 2 He has also been designated a terrorist by the U.S. State Department.1
Despite these contradictions, Jolani has actively engaged with the public in Idlib, visiting displacement camps, attending events, and overseeing aid efforts.6 HTS has highlighted its achievements in governance and infrastructure to legitimize its rule.6
HTS in Idlib
HTS has become the dominant force in Idlib, controlling most of the province and governing approximately two million people.7 The group has consolidated its power by absorbing or eliminating rival militias.7 It has also established a civilian-led government, the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), to administer the region.7
HTS's control of Idlib has been challenged by various factors, including internal divisions, protests from hardline Islamists and Syrian activists, and the presence of other extremist groups.1 However, the group has managed to maintain its grip on the province and expand its influence throughout Syria.
HTS and Israel
In the wake of Assad's fall, there have been concerns about the potential for Syrian rebel groups to threaten Israel. Some rebel groups have been documented vowing to "march on Jerusalem".9 However, there is no evidence suggesting that HTS or al-Jolani are part of these discussions. In fact, HTS has taken an accommodating stance toward Israel, with some opposition activists even crediting Israeli strikes on Hezbollah for aiding HTS's surprise attack.9
International Relations in a Post-Assad Syria
The fall of the Assad regime has significant implications for international relations in the Middle East. Here's a look at how various countries are reacting to the new situation:
Israel
Israel has a complex relationship with Syria, marked by decades of conflict and mistrust.10 The two countries have fought three major wars and have no diplomatic relations.10 Israel has expressed concern about the potential for Syrian rebel groups to threaten its security.
In response to the fall of Assad, Israel has launched airstrikes against Syrian military assets to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile forces.11 It has also seized areas of a demilitarized buffer zone previously controlled by the Syrian army.11
Turkey
Turkey has been a key supporter of the Syrian opposition, including HTS.1 It has provided the group with weapons and logistical support.1 Turkey has also maintained a military presence in Idlib, primarily to counter Kurdish forces and prevent the Syrian government from regaining control of the region.1
With the fall of Assad, Turkey's influence in Syria is likely to increase.1 However, the dynamics between Turkey and HTS have shifted, as HTS has grown to rule Syria and become less dependent on Ankara.1
Russia
Russia has been a staunch ally of the Assad regime, providing it with military and diplomatic support. However, with the fall of Assad, Russia's position in Syria is uncertain.
Russia has reportedly established contacts with HTS and is seeking to maintain its military bases in Syria.12 It remains to be seen how Russia will adapt to the new reality in Syria.
Iran
Iran has been a major backer of the Assad regime, providing it with financial and military assistance. The fall of Assad is a significant blow to Iran's influence in Syria.
Iran is likely to view HTS with hostility, as the group poses a threat to its interests in Syria. It remains to be seen how Iran will respond to the new situation.
Gulf States
The Gulf states have been divided in their response to the Syrian conflict. Some, like Qatar, have supported the opposition, while others, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have backed the Assad regime.
With the fall of Assad, the Gulf states are reassessing their positions. They are likely to engage with HTS and accommodate Turkey's influence in Syria.
United States
The United States has designated HTS as a terrorist organization. However, it has also engaged with the group in an effort to stabilize post-Assad Syria.
The U.S. is likely to continue its cautious engagement with HTS, while also working with its allies to promote a political transition in Syria.
Conclusions
The rise of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani and the fall of Bashar al-Assad mark a turning point in the Syrian conflict. The future of Syria remains uncertain, but it is clear that HTS will play a major role in shaping the country's political landscape. The international community will need to engage with HTS and other Syrian actors to promote stability and prevent the country from descending into further chaos.
The Enigma of Jolani: A Critical Appraisal
As I delve into the complexities of the Syrian conflict and the enigmatic figure of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, I am struck by the inherent contradictions and uncertainties that permeate this situation. Jolani's transformation from jihadist leader to potential statesman is a fascinating study in pragmatism and political maneuvering. However, his past actions and affiliations cast a long shadow over his present pronouncements, making it difficult to fully assess his true intentions and the future he envisions for Syria.
The evidence on al-Jolani's rule since 2016, though, suggests a genuine shift in his approach. He has actively engaged with the public, sought to reassure minorities, and prioritized stability in Idlib. Perhaps he truly has undergone a change of heart and is committed to building a more inclusive and moderate Syria. Of course, there's always the possibility that this is all part of a long game, a cunning ploy to gain power and legitimacy before revealing his true colors. If that's the case, then we have to admit, the man's an evil genius. To pull off such a deception for so long would require extraordinary patience, discipline, and strategic acumen. It would be a Machiavellian masterpiece worthy of admiration, even if we ultimately condemn his goals.
It's important to acknowledge that there have been concerns about HTS's treatment of minorities and its human rights record, even after 2016. Reports indicate that HTS has taken a more tolerant approach in some instances, allowing Christians to celebrate religious holidays and restoring property to Christian owners.13 However, there have also been reports of continued restrictions on religious freedom and instances of arbitrary arrests and torture.14 While some of this heavy-handedness might be expected in an environment where HTS faces adversaries like ISIS,7 it's crucial to continue monitoring the situation and holding HTS accountable for any human rights violations.
The fall of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum in Syria, with various actors vying for influence. HTS, with its control over Idlib and its recent military successes, is undoubtedly a major player in this new landscape. However, the group faces numerous challenges, including internal divisions, the presence of other extremist groups, and the need to gain international legitimacy.
The international community's response to the situation in Syria is also fraught with uncertainty. While some countries are cautiously engaging with HTS, others remain wary of the group's extremist past. The United States, in particular, faces a difficult dilemma, as it seeks to balance its counterterrorism objectives with the need to promote stability in Syria.
The future of Syria remains uncertain, but it is clear that the country is at a crossroads. The choices made by al-Jolani, HTS, and the international community in the coming months and years will have a profound impact on the lives of millions of Syrians and the stability of the entire region.
Works Cited:
1. Turkey's Prospects in Syria Depend on Peace, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.institude.org/opinion/turkeys-prospects-in-syria-depend-on-peace
2. Abu Mohammad al-Julani - Wikipedia, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Mohammad_al-Julani
3. Key characteristics of Turkish use of Syrian armed proxies, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2019/strategies-of-turkish-proxy-warfare-in-northern-syria/4-key-characteristics-of-turkish-use-of-syrian-armed-proxies/
4. Syrian Militant and Former Al Qaeda Leader Seeks Wider Acceptance in First Interview With U.S. Journalist - PBS, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/abu-mohammad-al-jolani-interview-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-syria-al-qaeda/
5. West has nothing to fear from Syria, rebel leader whose group ousted Assad tells Sky News, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://news.sky.com/story/west-has-nothing-to-fear-from-syria-rebel-leader-whose-group-ousted-assad-tells-sky-news-13270905
6. How Syria rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani reinvented himself - BBC, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0q0w1g8zqvo
7. Examining Extremism: Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) - CSIS, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.csis.org/blogs/examining-extremism/examining-extremism-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-hts
8. Protests Grow Against Powerful Jihadist Group in Syria Enclave - VOA News, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.voanews.com/a/protests-grow-against-powerful-jihadist-group-in-syria-enclave-/7518396.html
9. Who are the rebels battering Syria's regime, and do they pose a risk to Israel?, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/who-are-the-rebels-battering-syrias-regime-and-do-they-pose-a-risk-to-israel/
10. Israel and the Syrian civil war - Wikipedia, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_and_the_Syrian_civil_war
11. Hundreds of strikes, warships sunk, tanks on Syrian soil: How Israel reacted to Assad's fall, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-has-struck-over-300-syrian-sites-assad-fell-why-1
12. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 12, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2024
13. Syria: HTS Islamists pledge to show tolerance for minorities - DW, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/syria-hts-islamists-pledge-to-show-tolerance-for-minorities/a-70959165
14. Who runs Syria – and what does it mean for its Christians? - Open Doors UK & Ireland, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.opendoorsuk.org/news/latest-news/syria-hts-christians/
15. Syria: Civilians at Risk Amid Renewed Hostilities | Human Rights Watch, accessed on December 13, 2024, https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/12/04/syria-civilians-risk-amid-ren